Summary of Superforecasting Book by Philip E. Tetlock Ph.D., Dan Gardner

Do you find Wall Street financial forecasters’ activities somewhat enigmatic? Perhaps their ability to predict market trends strikes you as a magical hoax that is restricted to a select few. Maybe you subconsciously crave the ability to know the stocks that will perform best. Or predict the next hand to be dealt at a poker table? This summary does not promise you magical abilities, but reading to the end will set you apart with above-average predicting skills. A book full of insights, “Superforcasting” demystifies the tricks behind predicting the future. Tetlock dedicated himself to observing the skills and trends among individuals identified as accurate forecasters. He subsequently compounded the insights from his research into Superforecasters. All intelligent humans tend to practice some form of forecasting, which are often guesses. The power-packed lessons of this summary dispel the false predictions of self-acclaimed experts. It also highlights the possibility of the average person accurately predicting the future by training their judgment. Philip E. Tetlock is a renowned social scientist and Professor at the University of Pennsylvania. He is a political psychologist who has over two hundred research articles to his name; published in well-ranking journals. For Tetlock’s specialty and expertise in the empirical study of forecasting, he has received awards from multiple societies. He has been awarded by bodies like the American Psychological Association, the American Political Science Association, and the National Academy of Science. Dan Gardner was an investigative journalist and newspaper columnist before branching out into non-fiction writing. He is a New York Times best-selling author who has won many awards in his native Canada and international scene. “Foresight isn’t a mysterious gift bestowed at birth. It is the product of particular ways of thinking, of beliefs. These habits of thought can be learned and cultivated by any intelligent, thoughtful, determined person.” ~ Philip E. Tetlock