summary ofSuperforecastingBook by Philip E. Tetlock, PhD, Dan Gardner

first KEY POINT

Intentional predictability is possible by learned effort

A tent was located strategically on the fringes of the circus. It reeked of characteristic incense with a far from agreeable odor. Martin strutted in behind the gypsy, and they both sat at a table with a glass orb at its very center. She then started drawing cards and made predictions of Martin’s future. The gypsy did not show signs of being finished with him when he sprang to his feet and briskly walked out the tent door. Martin left the gypsy’s tent a sad man, not because of the news, but because he was ignorant of ways to confirm the predictions’ integrity.Though circuses, orbs, and gypsies are a laughable thought, it is interesting that a lot of guessing goes into several glorified predictions that govern our daily lives. Many investors purchase company IPOs on unverified forecasts by stock market pundits. When the purchased stock fails to perform as predicted, the investors are more likely to blame it on hard luck. But, accurate forecasting becomes crucial for predicting a region’s political climate.

In reality, no one subjects the foresight of prediction experts to scrutiny due to their celebrity status. And when analyzing some of their judgments that falter—in retrospect, they duck using the excuse of ‘unforeseen variables.’ But, research by psychology experts reveal predictions of above-average accuracy as possible. Thus, Tetlock and Gardner provide beginners with a guide to accurate forecasting; using simple empirical probability.